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Australia¡¯s government has ruled a line in the sand over the composition of enrolments at the nation¡¯s universities, warning administrators against allowing international student numbers to creep into the majority.

Education minister Jason Clare said locals should comprise ¡°more than 50 per cent¡± of enrolments. ¡°There¡¯s nothing more important for Australian universities than educating Australians,¡± Clare told .

He said the scale of international enrolments at the University of Sydney, where foreigners constituted 51 per cent of students last year, was one of the reasons the government had rejected the university¡¯s application for an increase to its quota of places for new overseas students.

The international share of Sydney¡¯s students had risen from 49 per cent in 2023 and 43 per cent before the coronavirus pandemic.

Sydney ramped up its intake of foreign students a decade ago, after the conservative Abbott government¡¯s 2013 election increased the uncertainty of higher education funding flows. By 2018 its overseas enrolments had more than doubled to 26,000, up from 12,300 in 2013.

Sydney was not the only institution where foreign students were in the majority last year, according to Education Department statistics. RMIT University¡¯s overseas share of students rose from 47 per cent in 2019 to 49 per cent in 2023 and just over 50 per cent in 2024. At Perth¡¯s Murdoch University, the international proportion of students rose from 40 per cent in 2019 to 53 per cent in 2023 and 57 per cent last year.

All three institutions enrolled fewer domestic students in 2024 than 2019.

Other universities where international students are approaching the majority are UNSW Sydney (47 per cent), the University of Wollongong (46 per cent), Monash University (45 per cent) and the University of Melbourne (44 per cent).

All four increased their foreign share of students in 2024, despite multiple federal policy changes aimed at restricting overseas enrolments. UNSW boosted its student numbers by over 12,000 in a single year, with almost 11,000 of them from overseas.

Monash, Murdoch, RMIT and Wollongong all have substantial offshore branch campuses which inflate their international enrolments. That is not the case at Sydney, UNSW or Melbourne.

Marketing consultant Tim Winkler said Clare¡¯s pronouncement marked a departure from the ¡°opaque rationales¡± underpinning last year¡¯s ballooning visa delays and refusals.

¡°This is believed to be the first time the government has explicitly identified a level of international enrolments that they view as unacceptable, although the actual ceiling that would be acceptable is not yet known,¡± Winkler in his Future Campus newsletter.

While there are no hard and fast rules about an appropriate ceiling, many observers identify 30 per cent as the point where the disadvantages of international education start to outweigh the advantages in comprehensive universities catering to locals.

The Australian Technology network of universities last year lobbied for a 35 per cent ceiling, while the Liberal-National party opposition this year proposed a cap of ¡°around 25 per cent¡±.

Levels at public universities last year ranged from 6 per cent at the University of New England (UNE) to 57 per cent at Murdoch. The proportion of university revenue derived from international education averaged 28 per cent across the sector, and ranged from 7 per cent at UNE to 41 per cent at Sydney, UNSW, RMIT and Murdoch.

john.ross@timeshighereducation.com