China’s plans to grow research and development (R&D) spending by at least 7 per cent annually over the next five years mark the continued prioritisation of scientific progress despite growing economic concerns, according to academics.  

The increase, part of China’s 15th five-year plan, includes targeted investment in national laboratories and major research projects, building on years of rapid expansion that has already transformed the country’s scientific output and global standing.

Caroline S. Wagner, academy professor at Ohio State University, said the scale of the superpower’s rise remains historically unprecedented.

“China has made these investments and achieved success in science and technology at the fastest rate of any nation in history,” Wagner said. “China’s science and technology development is truly spectacular.”

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By some measures, China has already overtaken the US in total R&D spending, with investment now at around 2.8 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – above the OECD average, and roughly 35 times higher than in 1991, she noted.

The latest increase signals continuity rather than change, according to Dmytro Filchenko, senior director, research and analytics at the Institute for Scientific Information at Clarivate.

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“This funding boost is consistent with, and reinforces, a longer trend,” he said. “By 2024, mainland China had become the world’s most prolific producer of research articles…and its citation impact has risen to be broadly on par with the US and leading European countries.”

Jeroen Groenewegen-Lau, analyst at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, said the funding reflects a shift in priorities within China’s development model. Earlier this month, China cut its annual economic growth target to its lowest goal since 1991 amid signs the country’s economy continues to falter. 

“It seems like...economic development is really subservient to science and technological progress,” he said, adding that “a larger portion of [China's] economy will be dedicated to science and technology” as R&D grows faster than GDP.

Experts say the implications for universities are significant. Sustained funding is expected to further strengthen leading institutions, many of which have already climbed rapidly in global rankings.

“With China’s commitment to invest increasing funds in science, academic strength will likely continue to grow,” Wagner said. 

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Universities are likely to play a central role in this shift, as China increasingly integrates research, talent and industrial policy.

“Universities have become increasingly important as locations for innovation and research output,” Groenewegen-Lau said, adding that funding will be closely tied to national strategic goals, particularly in areas related to critical technologies.

While the investment is expected to accelerate China’s push for scientific self-reliance, the country is also expected to maintain selective international collaboration.

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Filchenko said partnership remains critical to China’s research standing. “Internationally co-authored papers achieve higher citation impact than domestic-only outputs,” he said, pointing to growing partnerships with Europe, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East.

Despite the increased investment, there are questions about whether China will be able to attract top international talent to boost its knowledge base. 

Groenewegen-Lau said China is likely to continue drawing researchers with existing ties to the country, but may struggle to attract those without such links. “The money alone…is probably not enough to really change the trend,” he said, citing challenges around language, bureaucracy and career progression.

He added that increasing geopolitical tensions could further jeopardise China’s success.

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“More countries could decide that it’s not in their interest to work together with China,” he said. 

tash.mosheim@timeshighereducation.com