UK universities could be forced to close courses, increase class sizes, focus research investment and consider mergers if they continue on their current trajectory, a former vice-chancellor has warned.

Outlining one scenario for how the sector might look in future in a new paper, Sir Chris Husbands, who led Sheffield Hallam University between 2017 and 2023, said a lack of any serious attempt to address funding difficulties could also see scholarships cut, welfare services pared back and moves to “more flexible staffing models”.

Universities that were previously research-intensive may have to “significantly” shift their business plans, which could even lead to their expulsion from the Russell Group, the paper published by the Higher Education Policy Institute on 6 June says.

Describing what the hypothetical scenario could look like, it says: “While the sector remained large, the number of institutions fell by comparison with the early 2020s and government and the sector became adept in managing mergers and market exits.”

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Sir Chris told ̽����Ƶ that the description would be seen by many as one of “unpalatable decline and I wouldn’t disagree with that. But it is the trajectory we are currently on.”

“If there isn’t action, this is where we will end up,” he said. “You can see it happening now: universities are making some really tough decisions that involve de-specifying elements of the model, because they have got to.”

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Currently the sector is being told by government “we want you to deliver a high-touch, high-cost, high-quality model, but we are not going to allow you the resources to do it”, which Sir Chris said was “just crazy”.

Another scenario outlined in the paper is therefore one that delivers on the government’s vision but involves universities being properly funded to “do the job they are being asked to do”.

Two more options are outlined: closer integration with further education to create a “place-based tertiary system” or sharper differentiation between research and teaching institutions.

Sir Chris said the exercise was not intended to make predictions for the future but to follow what the repercussions of various policy changes could be to help shape thinking in the sector.

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The paper says that “many institutions will look fundamentally different in five years’ time” and all the roads ahead require “painful choices”.

Even the second scenario that is mostly closely aligned with the policy wishes of university leaders comes with downsides, it adds.

The paper estimates that this system would cost £8 billion more and it would also be seen as “politically expensive”, according to Sir Chris, because it would involve increasing fees and, although it would take university deficits out of the headlines, it “does not offer the government much that is new”.

tom.williams@timeshighereducation.com