Economic uncertainty is one of the key drivers behind record low university application rates from older age groups in the UK, experts have warned.

Recent figures showed that a near-record number of 18-year-olds submitted Ucas applications by the final deadline in 2023, and the reapplication rate among 19-year-olds was higher than ever.

But these positive figures masked falling numbers of older applicants, according to Mark Corver, co-founder of dataHE.

“Taking out this recycled demand gives mature demand numbers hitting record lows, with application rates down widely,” he said.

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“It is likely the demand from older students is in long-term decline due to the expansion of opportunity for 18-year-olds over the past decade.”

Mr Corver said this would remain a challenge for lower tariff providers, which are more exposed to this demand pool.

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New demand from older age groups at all ages apart from 35 and above has slumped to its lowest level ever.

According to analysis by dataHE, the fall in first-time application rates was steepest for 19-year-olds, dropping to 6.1 per cent.

But rates also fell for 20-year-olds (to 2.9 per cent), 21- to 24-year-olds (4.4 per cent), 25- to 29-year-olds (1.8 per cent) and 30- to 34-year-olds (1.1 per cent).

“Returning to university as a mature student involves a significant financial commitment, and a significant lifestyle change,” said Camilla Priede, from the department for lifelong learning at the University of Sheffield.

“The continued economic uncertainty and high employment rates may mean that more people are hesitant to commit to a three- or four-year course at this time.”

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These falling rates are going to continue to be a challenge for the sector, warned Dr Priede – who added that recent reforms will only create further uncertainty.

“This, in turn, makes the need for very clear, independent advice and guidance for mature students, and the possible pathways through and beyond individual higher education provision, absolutely critical.”

John Butcher, director of access, open and cross-curricular innovation at the Open University, said that in times of financial austerity, part-time higher education – which many older applicants are forced to choose – drops down the list of personal priorities.

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With no access to maintenance support, part-time students living at a time of soaring inflation will often opt out of higher education, he said.

“For adult learners, difficult decisions have to be made about investing in higher education, and university provision is often too inflexible to meet the needs of older learners, who are usually not in a position to move to where the university is.”

Despite the falling numbers of applicants, Dr Priede said, there is always more that the sector can do to support mature students.

“Learning at 18 is not for everyone, and it’s important to ensure that pathways for mature students continue and thrive,” she said.

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“We need to recognise that there’s not one model that fits everyone, and that we continue to support foundation years, apprenticeships, degree apprenticeships as well as the traditional three-year degree model.”

patrick.jack@timeshighereducation.com