A climate scientist has become the first female leader of Mexico after winning a record-breaking majority on the back of promises to make the country into a “scientific and innovation power”, but questions remain over how far she will break from the populist policies of her predecessor.

Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, a former professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (Unam), will assume office on 1 October, replacing her mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, whose six years in power saw numerous attacks on academics.

The strong mandate for the member of Mr López Obrador’s left-wing Morena party could give her the legitimacy to establish her own policies away from the influence of the outgoing president, said Cath Andrews, a history professor at the Center for Research and Teaching in Economics (Cide) in Mexico City.

Mr López Obrador oversaw a series of cuts to institutions’ budgets – particularly those he perceived as opposing his regime – and passed a science law that sought to shape research spending around his government’s priorities.

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“Until now, she [Dr Sheinbaum] has been extremely careful not to antagonise López Obrador, nor suggest she will be anything but the continuation of his project,” said Dr Andrews, adding that this “makes it very difficult to accurately predict what she is going to do on all fronts, higher education included”.

Her background as an academic who is the daughter of academics has, however, raised hopes that she might be more sympathetic.

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Gabriela Dutrénit, a professor at the Metropolitan Autonomous University, who along with 30 others was accused of corruption and organised crime in a legal case backed by Mr López Obrador, pointed to Dr Sheinbaum calling this accusation “excessive” at the time as evidence that the rhetoric will change.

Dr Sheinbaum’s record as mayor of Mexico City, in which she worked with universities on research projects aimed at addressing the city’s problems, was also indicative of a different approach, according to Professor Dutrénit.

Not everyone is convinced. Alma Maldonado, a researcher at the Center for Research and Advanced Studies of the National Polytechnic Institute (Cinvestav), said she had seen little sign that Dr Sheinbaum might treat universities differently, pointing out that she is known as “the copy” and has embraced all of Mr López Obrador’s reforms, including recent proposed changes to the judiciary.

But Dr Sheinbaum’s education adviser, Rosaura Ruiz, a Unam professor, recently signalled a potential split from the past when she said that “nothing has been decided” on Mexico’s controversial science law, which was passed in tumultuous fashion in 2023 and has since been the subject of a legal challenge.

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The law directs the spending of the National Council for the Humanities, Sciences, Technologies and Innovation (Conahcyt), one of Latin America’s most important research funders, and has been criticised for its focus on funding only research seen as useful to the government.

Dr Andrews said that if the Supreme Court overturns the law because it did not comply with the legislative process, the new administration would have to propose another one, which could prove to be more palatable to scientists.

A different potential outcome, according to Dr Maldonado, was that, given that the court’s influence was being challenged, Mr López Obrador’s law might end up staying in place.

Overall, Dr Andrews said she was hopeful that the “openly hostile tone” would be abandoned, but thought it likely that the new administration would continue with the approach that “higher education should be at the service and disposition of the federal government and its policies” and would find it difficult to reverse funding cuts.

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tom.williams@timeshighereducation.com