University leaders must begin taking Reform UK seriously or “risk being sidelined”, policy analysts have said, as Nigel Farage’s right-wing party looks set to gain ground in next year’s elections in the devolved nations.

In Wales, Senedd elections are set to take place in May, while Scotland is due to hold parliamentary elections around the same time.��

Reform is expected to make inroads following the party’s success in England’s local elections earlier this year. While it may struggle to gain enough support to play a role in government in either nation, the populist party’s growing power is likely to have knock-on effects on higher education policy – and could provide a preview of what is to come in the next UK general election.

“It’s fair to say we might not expect Reform to be in government in Wales or Scotland, but they would clearly be an influential opposition group,” said Dewi Knight, director of PolicyWISE and a former adviser to the Welsh government.��

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Little is known about Reform’s policies for the devolved nations, although the party has previously outlined its overall approach to higher education. This included a pledge to restrict undergraduate numbers “well below” current levels as “too many courses are not good enough and students are being ripped off”.

If elected, the party would also “enforce minimum entry standards” and cut funding to institutions “that undermine free speech”, and force universities to provide two-year undergraduate courses.

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In the upcoming Welsh elections, “I think you could anticipate headline policies from Reform that we are familiar with,” Knight said.��“That would be a real challenge to what sector leaders in Wales want. It’s incumbent on vice-chancellors and senior people in the sector in Wales to engage with Reform and help shape their thinking.” 

However, there are concerns that university leaders across the UK are burying their head in the sand when it comes to the shifting political tides.

“I don’t think it’s quite got to the [Scottish] universities’ agenda yet,” said Des McNulty, deputy director of Policy Scotland, not least because “not much is known about Reform’s operations north of the border”.��

At the moment, universities have “other fish to fry”, he continued, including grappling with the worsening funding situation.��

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But the sector should “prepare for all eventual outcomes or risk being sidelined”, warned Diana Beech, director of the Finsbury Institute at City St George’s, University of London.�� 

“In my view, institutions must learn the lessons from the Brexit referendum – where the sector’s perceived elitism and detachment ended up alienating swathes of the electorate,” she continued.��

“This time, universities must engage constructively with Reform UK and its supporters, even if they disagree with the party’s platform.”

Knight added, “Many Welsh vice-chancellors and chairs need to do a lot more, not only in engaging with Reform, but actually to be curious and contribute to Welsh public policy developments and debates.”

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And, if Reform experiences election success in the devolved nations, this is likely to “send shock waves through the Labour government in Westminster”, said Beech, which could “embolden calls for tougher immigration measures, including around student visas”.

Since coming to power, the current administration has already moved to reduce the length of the Graduate Route visa and tighten compliance metrics for student visas as part of a swathe of immigration policies seen partly as a response to the threat from Reform.��

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“Universities in Scotland and Wales should prepare for potential political volatility ahead,” Beech continued. “This means investing in building relationships with candidates from all political parties and refining their messaging about the economic, social and civic value of higher education.”

helen.packer@timeshighereducation.com