That a week is a long time in politics was ably illustrated by a seven-day shift from fury among senior scientists over a Horizon Europe cash clawback, to renewed hope – optimism, even – about UK association to the prestigious research programme.

A fortnight ago, I suggested a list of things that the government should not do if it is serious about putting science and research at the heart of its strategy for the country.

One was to imagine that life outside of Horizon Europe was in any way equal to association; another was to allow any complacency about research funding, even if 2.4 per cent of GDP was achieved.

The angst around both issues was laid bare a few days later when the Treasury clawed back over £1 billion previously allocated for Horizon.

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“The failure of all sides to secure association has now cost UK science £1.6 billion. That comes on top of the talented researchers who have left…How does this sit with the government’s stated mission to have the UK as a science superpower?” asked the Royal Society’s president, Sir Adrian Smith.

The government, for its part, denied that this money had been lost to science, its argument being that if the UK does not, ultimately, associate to Horizon, then “at least as much” will be spent on other funding arrangements. The clawback reflects its position that, were it to happen, the price tag of UK association would have to be revised because the Horizon programme is now well under way.

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The irony, as we report, is that with movement on the Northern Ireland protocol this week, association suddenly seems possible once again.

Martin Smith, head of the Wellcome Trust’s policy lab, tells us that removing this roadblock to UK involvement in Horizon should “unlock” the door, although he warns that appetite for continued to and fro is limited and that “patience is wearing thin”.

A return for UK science to the Horizon fold would be a huge win for all sides, but that should not obscure the damage done by the years in limbo, coupled with the broader effects of Brexit.

Both have contributed to a general loss of trust in the UK as a partner, an issue that is not limited to Horizon: the sudden withdrawal from collaborative research funded by the Official Development Assistance programme two years ago also hit the UK’s reputation.

Which is all very dispiriting, but what does it mean in practice?

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Among the responses to the news of the Treasury clawback last week was a warning from John Hardy, professor of neuroscience at UCL, that despite the rhetoric about superpower status, “I fear the opposite is happening. We are fading fast, and having just done a review meeting in Paris, I fear we are being overtaken. It’s definitely getting harder to attract bright students and postdocs.”

This view was seconded by others, including Jennifer Rohn, professor of cell biology at UCL, who agreed that there were now “much smaller applicant pools”.

Look at the situation through the other end of the telescope, and it is not hard to understand why even the natural goodwill within science itself has started to fray.

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There have now been repeated rounds of European scientists reviewing UK applications for, say, European Research Council (ERC) funding, more or less in the full knowledge that it is pointless, since until and unless association is agreed they are ineligible.

Everyone is fed up with this – applicants because they don’t know whether they will get a grant or not (and this is not just about the cash: an ERC grant is also a huge boost in attracting good people to a lab), reviewers because the whole process feels little more than a charade.

So does the fury that blew in Whitehall’s direction after the Horizon clawback represent the final gusts of a storm that is about to blow itself out, if the new deal is agreed and implemented?

The relief, in such an eventuality, would be enormous.

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But just as the government should not kid itself that life outside Horizon could be as good for UK science as involvement with the programme, let us not pretend that the damage done to the reputation and fabric of UK science in the years of Brexit-related political wrangling can be instantly undone at the stroke of a politician’s pen.

john.gill@timeshighereducation.com